Investments in fossil fuels are declining across the world, but many African nations are keen to exploit their natural resources. Tough choices face policymakers as they weigh up economic benefits and environmental costs.
AFE MICHAEL, examines outlook for African energy in our special report.
The world is in the middle of a profound energy transition. A global energy sector dominated by hydrocarbons is in the process of a wholesale shift to renewable energy, including solar, wind and hydrogen power. Tackling climate change has long demanded a complete transition and now the falling cost of renewables is making it easier to achieve.
But the transition presents huge challenges for the African continent, both in terms of technological adoption and cost.
The challenges for Africa in the energy transition.
Africa walks development tightrope as calls for oil and gas restraint grow.
Most electricity on the continent is currently produced by hydro schemes and thermal plants: gas in many coastal areas, including North Africa; coal in South Africa in particular; and older, generally smaller oil fuel plants almost everywhere.
Gas produces roughly half the greenhouse gas emissions of coal, so is seen as a bridging fuel in the transition from hydrocarbons to renewables. Egypt, Algeria and Tanzania rely heavily on gas, while Mozambique and Nigeria have the biggest gas reserves in sub-Saharan Africa but have struggled to maximise their gas potential because of insecurity.
Security problems for Africa’s oil and gas producers.
Insecurity haunts Africa’s key oil producers. Yet one thing is clear: the current power supply is inadequate across the African continent as a whole. According to International Energy Association figures, more than 590m people are still without access to electricity in Africa.
Explore the debate around Africa’s energy future.
Without flexibility, Africa’s energy revolution will not take place.
Africa charts a complex road to net zero
Give the developing world $700bn per year to save the planet, says Africa’s chief climate negotiator
Africa must not be the West’s sacrificial lamb for net zero
How can Africa create a favourable investment climate for oil and gas?
Is a ‘climate action famine’ inevitable after Cop26?
Can renewables solve South Africa’s energy problems?
Cop26: Limiting temperature rises to 1.5C is not enough for Africa, says Uganda’s Vanessa Nakate
Opinion turns against coal
Although global coal consumption remains high, global opinion has firmly turned against the most polluting form of power generation. The South African government remains reluctant to wind down coal production given its plentiful reserves, a large industry and a power generation mix dominated by coal.
Under its 2019 Integrated Resource Plan, South Africa intends to build another 1,500 MW of coal capacity but the pressure for it to abandon the proposal is growing. The country is the 12th biggest greenhouse gas emitter in the world, although it is ranked 38th in per capita terms.
The challenges for Africa in relinquishing coal
South Africa’s loyalty to coal highlights Africa’s energy transition problems
Dianna Games
New coal plants have been planned in other parts of the continent, including Kenya, Ghana and Zimbabwe, but local and international opposition has proved difficult to overcome.
Although China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey managed to block any mention of phasing out coal worldwide in a joint statement by G20 climate and energy ministers in July, Beijing has agreed to stop financing any new coal plants in other countries.
More than 70% of proposed coal plants, including almost all in Africa, relied on Chinese financing, so their construction now seems more unlikely than ever.
Mixed blessings of hydro
Hydro occupies an uncertain position in the energy transition. Although there can be significant methane emissions from rotting reservoir.
